Freight quotation validity when rates fall and surcharges rise

A forwarder quoting ocean freight this month is exposed in two directions at once. Base rates are drifting down as container lines bring capacity back through the Suez Canal, so a customer holding a 30-day quotation may find a cheaper offer before it expires. At the same time, carriers keep announcing surcharges with less than three weeks' notice, so the cost behind that same quotation can rise before the cargo sails.

A validity period written as "valid 30 days" protects against neither. This article looks at which dates actually decide what a carrier charges you, and how to word a quotation so that a falling market and a rising surcharge are both handled by terms you set in advance rather than by a phone call after the booking.

#What is moving this month

Drewry's World Container Index for 5 November fell 1% to USD 4,389 per 40-foot container. Shanghai–Rotterdam fell 2% to USD 3,615, while Shanghai–Genoa held at USD 4,166. Drewry notes that carriers are pushing through FAK increases in mid-November, but expects Asia–Europe rates to stay stable because ample capacity makes it uncertain whether those increases will hold. It puts the share of Asia–Europe capacity using the Suez route at 60%, and Evergreen resumed Suez transits on 8 November after nearly three years.

The longer view points the same way. At its Munich summit on 5 November, Xeneta forecast that global average spot rates will fall 30% in 2027 and long-term contract rates 5%, both as full-year averages against the third quarter of 2026. If that forecast holds, the gap between spot and contract rates will widen, which matters to any forwarder whose buy rates sit on contracts while its customers compare against spot quotes.

Surcharges are moving the other way on several trades that matter to the region:

• Maersk is revising its peak season surcharge from Far East Asia to the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Dammam to USD 1,000 per 20-foot and USD 2,000 per 40- or 45-foot container. It takes effect on 16 November for most origins, 19 November for Vietnam and 22 November for South Korea.
• CMA CGM has announced a peak season surcharge from Asia to the Mediterranean and North Africa of USD 800 per 20-foot and USD 1,600 per 40-foot container for containers loaded on or after 25 November, according to El Estrecho Digital, which reports the carrier's commercial notice of 6 November.

Neither carrier gives an end date. Both surcharges apply until further notice.

#The date that decides the carrier's price

A forwarder's quotation usually has one visible date: the day it stops being valid. The carrier's price is decided by a different date, and the two rarely coincide.

Maersk's 4 November notice spells out its rule. For non-spot bookings, the surcharge is "retrieved based on Price Calculation Date (PCD)". Outside trades regulated by the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC), that is the scheduled departure of the first water leg at the time of booking confirmation; on FMC trades it is the last container's gate-in date. CMA CGM's new surcharge, as reported, uses the loading date.

In both cases the carrier is looking at when the cargo moves, not at when you quoted. Your quotation's validity, the validity of the buy rate behind it, and the carrier's pricing date are three separate dates, and a quotation is only safe when someone has checked how they line up.

Suppose you quoted a customer on 6 November for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Jebel Ali, valid for 30 days, with the peak season surcharge included at the level in force that day. The customer accepts on 12 November, and you book a vessel scheduled to sail on 20 November. On a non-spot Maersk booking, the price calculation date is 20 November, after the revised surcharge takes effect on 16 November. Your quotation is still valid, but the cost behind it is now based on the new surcharge level. Unless the quotation said otherwise, you either absorb the difference or ask the customer to accept a price they were told was fixed.

#Quote the surcharge level and name its trigger

The common fix is a blanket line such as "subject to surcharges at the time of shipment". It protects the forwarder on paper but tells the customer nothing, and it tends to start an argument when it is used. A more useful quotation shows each surcharge as its own line, at the level you have seen, with the condition that changes it:

• Base freight, with the buy rate's own validity in mind. If the carrier rate behind the quotation expires on 30 November, a quotation valid to 6 December is promising something you don't hold.
• Each carrier surcharge as a separate line (peak season, emergency or contingency, war risk, Suez or Red Sea surcharges where they apply), at the level in force, with "as per carrier tariff at the carrier's pricing date" stated once in the terms.
• Announced changes you already know about. If a revision has been published with a date, quote the new level for cargo that will move after that date, or say plainly that the new level will apply from it. Quoting the old level across a known change date is a decision to absorb the difference, and should be taken as one.
• What is excluded: destination charges, storage, detention and demurrage, and any cost of a change of routing.

Splitting the lines also makes the conversation easier when rates fall. A customer who can see that the base freight is competitive and that a carrier surcharge accounts for most of the increase is arguing with the carrier's notice, not with your margin.

#When the market falls during validity

Falling rates create the opposite pressure. A customer holding your quotation receives a lower one from a competitor and asks you to match it, often after the booking has been made.

Whether you can depends on what your quotation rests on. A sell rate built on a contract buy rate cannot follow the spot market down without cutting into margin, because a fixed contract rate doesn't follow it. A sell rate built on a spot buy rate may be repriceable if the carrier's own rate has dropped and the booking hasn't been confirmed at the old level. The salesperson answering the customer needs to know which of the two applies to this lane, and that is only possible if each sell rate keeps a link to the buy rate it came from.

It also helps to decide the policy before the request arrives. Some options a forwarder can choose between:

• Shorter validity on volatile lanes, so a falling market resets the price sooner without a negotiation.
• Re-quote rather than discount. Issue a revised quotation with new terms instead of reducing the price on an existing one. The customer gets the lower price, and you keep a record of what was offered, when, and why it changed.
• Separate validity for base freight and surcharges, where your terms allow it: the base freight fixed for the period, the surcharges as per the carrier's tariff.

The choice is commercial and will differ by customer. What causes losses is having no choice made, so that each request is settled by whoever picks up the phone.

#Keep the trail from quotation to booking

The checks above only work if the terms the customer accepted are the terms the booking is priced on. When quotations live in e-mails and spreadsheets, a revised surcharge can enter the booking without anyone comparing it with the accepted quotation, and the difference appears only when finance reviews the file's costs, often after the invoice has gone out. Our article on Khor Fakkan and Fujairah delays shows the same problem from the operations side, where routing changes move the cost after the quotation is accepted.

In Bolisa, a quotation keeps its revisions, accepted options become customer offers that show the quotation they came from, and a booking made from an offer keeps the terms the offer fixed. When an accepted quotation is converted, the preview shows where current costs have drifted from the quoted ones, so the difference is visible before the booking rather than at invoicing. Our sales and pricing page shows how the rate library, quotations and offers connect.

Before the next batch of quotations goes out, take the lanes where a surcharge revision is already announced and check three things on each open quotation: when the buy rate expires, when the carrier will price the cargo, and whether the quotation says which surcharge level applies after that date.